If you understand how to measure the substance of a team of college football, you can often tell an unexpected loss. It is difficult to predict exactly when this will happen. When Stanford upset Southern California 24-23 last Saturday (10-6-07), many were surprised. I was not.
No. 2-place USC was a perfect 4-0 coming into the game and had received only 5 seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pac-10 conference title. Stanford was a 6 touchdownOutsider, had lost 41-3 at home against Arizona State a week earlier had lost to USC 42-0 a year ago and ended last year with a lousy 1-11 record.
So what happened? Study of these three types of numbers to identify some clues. The first is the AP Top 25 weeks preceding the survey, the second is the evaluation of the results of a mathematical Sagarin strength team against common opponents, and the third is mathematics Sagarin rescheduled, a strength of the team.
The AP poll is composed of 65 MedienTypes to be followed and the teams of the college. Jeff Sagarin Sagarin is produced, the gold standard in the credit rating services. Sagarin ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced by each team, and also taking into account the evaluation of the opponent and the location of the game.
AP Top 25 Poll - Vote Sagarin - Calendar Rank
1) LSU 1) LSU 1) Washington
2) Southern California2) Southern California 2) Notre Dame
3) California 3) Ohio State 3) Colorado State
4) Ohio State 4) Oklahoma 4) Stanford
5) Wisconsin 5) California 5) Marshall
6) South Florida 6) South Florida 6) Tennessee
7) Boston College 7) West Virginia 7) Mississippi
8)Kentucky 8) Arizona State 8) North Carolina
9) Florida 9) Florida 9) Colorado
10) Oklahoma 10) Auburn 10) AA Sam Houston
11) South Carolina 11) Oregon 11) Auburn
12) Georgia 12) UCLA 12) Akron
13) West Virginia 13) Georgia13) Duke
14) Oregon 14) Cincinnati 14) East Carolina
15) Virginia Tech 15) Boston College 15) LA-Monroe
16) Hawaii 16) Kentucky 16) Florida International
17) Missouri 17) South Carolina 17) Florida State
18) Arizona State 18) Missouri 18) Syracuse
19) Texas19), Kansas State 19) UCLA
20) Cincinnati 20) Connecticut 20) Brigham Young
21) Rutgers 21) Florida State 21) Oregon
22) Clemson 22) Boise State 22) San Diego State
23) Purdue 23) Purdue 23) Washington State
24), Kansas State 24) Wisconsin 24) WakeForest
25) Nebraska 25) Texas 25) Miami (Ohio)
How could Stanford upset USC? Well, for one thing, even if USC has a lot of talent, has not seen his talent for the game. USC talent was "in" the game, but not "in" the game.
USC was 4-0 and ranked No. 2 entering the game and Stanford was 1-3 and ranked No. 83, Stanford 4 still had the hardest schedule in the country has done before the Cardinal arrived at USC as a visitTeam. USC has played the 38th hardest schedule.
You decide if this is a factor or not. I say that was a factor. USC certainly did not think of Stanford, who has been a tough opponent, the Trojans pay a high price for not prepared. Here's another example. I have said for weeks in Wisconsin was overrated. The Badgers were 5-0 and No. 5 players to go to Illinois, while the Branch Illini were, however, 31-26 disorders of Wisconsin.
Wisconsin may have been ranked No. 5, but have their Sagarin Ratingwas no 24 and 90 Badgers had the most difficult game to play. Sagarin rating for Illinois was No. 40, but the Illini had the 39 played the hardest schedule.
Still not convinced? Kentucky was 5-0 and ranked No. 8 is in South Carolina and the Gamecocks lost 38-23.
Kentucky had Sagarin rating of 16 and had the 92 played the hardest schedule. South Carolina was 4-1 and ranked No. 11, had a Sagarin rating of No. 17 and was the 47 played the hardestSchedule.
In a battle of unbeaten Purdue was 5-0, the place and hosts No. 23 Ohio State Buckeyes 23-7, they suggest. Sagarin rating for Purdue and No. 23 and the Boilermakers was the 124 he played the hardest schedule. There are only 119 Division 1-A schools.
Ohio State was 5-0 and ranked No. 4 with a Sagarin rating of No. 3 and had 60 played the hardest schedule.
Some fans and experts do not put faith in Sagarin. I put a lot of faith in Sagarin's teamReviews and was on schedule, and now you know why. I can predict with some accuracy, when a team is overvalued and due to an unexpected loss.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
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